Much is made of ‘swing states’, but it’s the national vote that decides US elections – and that’s driven by economic sentiment Presidential candidates win by accumulating a majority of votes (270) in the electoral college, not by winning the most votes nationwide. That’s why you’ll hear analysts talking about the “swing states”, but the truth is that presidential campaigns are mostly national.  Consider the last two really tight presidential elections, in 2000 and 2004. You may remember that Al Gore won the national vote in 2000 by about 0.5 of a percentage point; yet he lost the presidency.